A November loss to Oklahoma ignites a vicious College Football Playoff debate.
Where have we heard this one before? The Sooners upset Alabama 23-21 on Peloton Statement Saturday in a sequel to last year’s 24-3 victory that knocked the Crimson Tide out of the College Football Playoff. This one was not an elimination situation, but it’s going to create a huge debate for the third College Football Playoff rankings.
The Crimson Tide (8-2) should not be ranked ahead of the Sooners (8-2) based on head to head or their respective losses. Alabama has losses to Florida State and Oklahoma. The Sooners have losses to Texas and Ole Miss. Guess what? The Crimson Tide still have an inside draw on the SEC championship game, and that likely means they will be a spot or two ahead of Oklahoma in the rankings. We also think Alabama will be ranked ahead of Notre Dame (8-2).
Why is that important? Those three teams fall in that 8-to-10 range. It’s the difference between a home and road game in the first round. That’s going to be the lead argument with just three weeks left until the final field is announced.
Here is a look at our latest playoff projections, including first-round byes, first-round matchups and bubble teams.
Dropped out: Texas, South Florida
Moved in: Oklahoma, James Madison
UPDATED SCENARIOS: ACC | Big Ten | Big 12 | SEC
A look at the Power 4 teams (including Notre Dame) with two losses or less heading into Week 13:
The Buckeyes continued their Big Ten schedule with a 48-10 victory against UCLA, but there are concerns with injuries to receivers Carnell Tate, who missed his second straight game; and Jeremiah Smith, who did not play in the second half. Ohio State coach Ryan Day said he was not concerned after the game. Julian Sayin (23 of 31, 184 yards, TD) still had a solid game, and Bo Jackson (15-112, TD) energized the rushing attack. The Buckeyes face Rutgers in the home finale in Week 13.
INJURY UPDATES: Jeremiah Smith | Carnell Tate
It cuts both ways for the Aggies. Texas A&M trailed 30-3 at halftime against South Carolina, which put their SEC championship hopes in jeopardy. The Aggies rallied for a 31-30 victory behind Marcel Reed (22 of 39, 439 yards, 3 TDs, 2 INTs). Texas A&M plays Samford in Week 13 and can clinch a spot in the SEC championship game against Texas on Black Friday. For now, they remain the only unbeaten team in the conference. We respect that.
MORE: Inside the Aggies’ historic comeback vs. South Carolina
Indiana inched closer to a Big Ten championship appearance with a 31-7 victory against Wisconsin. Fernando Mendoza (22 of 24, 299 yards, 4 TDs) continued his Heisman Trophy campaign without the benefit of a strong running game. Indiana managed just 83 rushing yards on 2.2 yards per carry. The Hoosiers have a bye week before the regular-season finale against Purdue.
Georgia routed Texas 35-10 after a brilliant series of aggressive calls from Kirby Smart in the fourth quarter. This is an admitted hedge. The Bulldogs still need Alabama or Texas A&M to lose to make the SEC championship game, but they could slide to this spot either way. Gunner Stockton (24 of 29, 229 yards, 4 TDs, INT) enjoyed a huge game against the Longhorns.
A look at Sporting News projected first-round College Football Playoff matchups heading into Week 13 of the college football season:
The Red Raiders are pushing closer toward a first-round bye as the potential Big 12 champion. Texas Tech hammered UCF 48-9 to move one step closer to the conference championship. Linebacker Jacob Rodriguez had nine tackles and added a TD run out of the wildcat formation. Remember, Behren Morton (14 of 20, 149 yards, TD) did not play in the Red Raiders’ only loss to Arizona State. Texas Tech has a bye week before the regular-season finale against West Virginia. The American Athletic Conference is a mess, and the losses are piling up to the point where James Madison could get the fifth conference champion bid for the Sun Belt. James Madison responded to the AP Top 25 ranking by routing Appalachian State 58-10 behind an attack that featured 324 rushing yards and seven TDs.
MORE: Navy’s win over South Florida shakes up CFP race for Group of 5
Oregon quarterback Dante Moore (27 of 30, 306 yards, 2 TDs) had a 90% completion percentage, and the Ducks averaged six yards per carry in a 42-13 blowout against Minnesota, which set up the showdown with USC in Week 13. Dan Lanning is on track for back-to-back CFP appearances with the Ducks, who are being under-valued a touch. The ACC champion will likely wind up in this spot given the unstable race that could produce a two-loss champion. Georgia Tech rallied from a 28-17 deficit in the fourth quarter to beat Boston College 36-34. Haynes King (26 of 34, 371 yards, TD) continues to put up prolific statistics, and the Yellow Jackets rushed for 257 yards and three TDs. Georgia Tech welcomes Pitt in Week 13.
We get a regular-season rematch here. Ole Miss trailed Florida in the fourth quarter, but Kewan Lacy (31-224, 3 TDs) scored two fourth-quarter TDs to propel the Rebels to their 10th victory. Will that quiet the Lane Kiffin coaching rumors with the program poised to make its first CFP appearance? The Sooners cannot get to the SEC championship game, but victories against Missouri and LSU in the final two weeks likely would get Brent Venables into the 12-team playoff given the strength of schedule. John Mateer (15 of 23, 138 yards) added 23 rushing yards and a TD against the Crimson Tide in a turnover-free performance that was the difference.
MORE: Oklahoma defense stifles Alabama in another road upset
Is this too far? The Crimson Tide had three turnovers and averaged 2.3 yards per carry in the loss to the Sooners. Ty Simpson (28 of 42, 326 yards, TD, INT) took four sacks. Kalen DeBoer can still lead the Crimson Tide to the SEC championship game, but the loss exposed flaws when Alabama struggles to run the football. The Irish jumped out to a quick two-TD lead and maintained course from there in a 37-15 victory at Pitt in their second victory against a ranked opponent. Jeremiyah Love (23-147 yards, TD) had another highlight-reel TD run, and CJ Carr (21 of 32, 212 yards, 2 TDs, 2 INTs) shook off a few mistakes. Notre Dame limited Pitt to 0 of 13 conversions on third down. The Irish play their home finale against Syracuse in Week 13.
The Commodores had a bye week. Vanderbilt ranks second in the SEC with 38.3 points per game. Diego Pavia (2,440 yards, 21 TDs, 5 INTs) remains in the Heisman mix, and the Commodores finish the season against Kentucky and Tennessee.
BYU beat TCU 44-13 to keep its hopes for a rematch with Texas Tech in the Big 12 championship in line. Bear Bachmeier (23 of 33, 296 yards, TD) added 59 rushing yards and a TD, and LJ Martin (21-88, TD) had another strong performance. The Cougars face Cincinnati in Week 13.
Virginia might have done the ACC a huge favor with a 34-17 victory against Duke that pushed the Cavaliers one step closer to the ACC championship game. Chandler Morris (23 of 35, 316 yards, 2 TDs, 2 INTs) returned from last week’s injury, and Virginia limited the Blue Devils (5-5) to 42 rushing yards. The Cavaliers have a bye week before the regular-season finale against Virginia Tech.
Miami and Michigan are among the two-loss teams that also could get in the mix, but the Hurricanes have a long path to the ACC championship game and Michigan has a non-conference loss to Oklahoma. The Trojans beat Iowa 26-21 behind an efficient performance from Jayden Maiava (23 of 32, 254 yards, TD). USC is playing for its playoff life at Oregon in Week 13.
Utah routed Baylor 55-28 in Big 12 play. The Utes averaged 51 points per game in their last three victories and could build an at-large case despite losses to Texas Tech and BYU. Utah had 380 rushing yards led by backup quarterback Byrd Ficklin (6-166, 2 TDs). The Utes face Kansas State in Week 13.
Bill Bender is the 2025 president of the Football Writers Association of America. He graduated from Ohio University in 2002 and started at The Sporting News as a fantasy football writer in 2007. He has covered the College Football Playoff, NBA Finals and World Series for SN. Bender enjoys story-telling, awesomely-bad 80s movies and coaching youth sports.